ATI-Normandy

Infrastructure investments are well-documented drivers of regional economic development. Yet they also contribute to global warming — and, in turn, climate change degrades infrastructure quality, affecting regional welfare. Normandy is particularly exposed: rising sea levels, storms, floods, and heatwaves have already disrupted roads, bridges, and railways (Seine floods 2016, July 2021 rainfall, 2019 heatwaves, storms Ciara, Alex, and Federico).

For a consistent economic assessment of new investments — such as the Ligne Nouvelle Paris-Normandie (LNPN) — it is essential to integrate climate risks upfront in the planning phase.

The first objective is to establish how climate change affects transport infrastructure in Normandy: network diagnostic, identification of at-risk segments (using the IGN BD TOPO database), and information collection through interviews with professionals (SNCF Réseau, local authorities).

The second objective is to use quantitative spatial economic (QSE) models to evaluate the impact of climate change on regional welfare and compare scenarios with and without infrastructure adaptation strategies.

For the benchmark scenario of the QSE model, we assume resilient infrastructure exists, capable of containing the main climate risks. In the second scenario, certain network segments are not optimal, reflecting real-world conditions requiring upgrades. Comparing these scenarios allows the economic benefits of adaptation investments to be quantified.

ATI-Normandy will contribute to the quantitative spatial economics literature by extending QSE models to evaluate the welfare impact of climate change. The project will produce recommendations accessible to public decision-makers and infrastructure professionals, and the developed model will be open-sourced.